The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, with U.S. President Donald Trump signaling potential American military involvement, raises grave concerns for the United States, particularly for its agricultural sector. As the U.S. contemplates joining Israel in strikes against Iran, the ripple effects could devastate American farmers, rural communities, and the nation’s food security. Drawing lessons from the costly and protracted wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, American farmers have every reason to oppose U.S. involvement in yet another Middle East conflict, which could prove far more catastrophic. This article explores how such a war would impact American agriculture, increase the risk of agroterrorism, expose food production to direct attacks, and send young rural Americans to fight and die for foreign interests, which is why farmers must vociferously resist this dangerous path.
Economic Disruption and Agricultural Markets
American agriculture, a cornerstone of the U.S. economy, is highly sensitive to global market fluctuations. A U.S.-Iran war, particularly one involving attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, would likely cause oil prices to skyrocket. According to economic analysts, a blockade of the Strait could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, as seen during past regional conflicts like the Iran-Iraq War. Higher oil prices would increase the cost of fuel, fertilizers, and transportation, directly inflating production costs for farmers. These costs would inevitably be passed on to consumers, driving up food prices and potentially reducing demand for American agricultural exports, which account for a significant portion of farm revenue.
The U.S. is a leading exporter of agricultural products, but a war could disrupt key trade routes and markets. Iran’s threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial portion of global oil and goods pass, would create bottlenecks in global supply chains. Countries reliant on U.S. agricultural exports, such as China, could face delays or turn to alternative suppliers, causing long-term market share losses for American farmers. Moreover, Iran’s ability to sustain missile attacks, as demonstrated in recent barrages against Israel, suggests a prolonged conflict could destabilize the region further, exacerbating economic uncertainty and reducing global demand for U.S. crops and livestock.
The Specter of Agroterrorism
A U.S.-Iran war would significantly heighten the risk of agroterrorism, a threat already identified as a critical vulnerability by the FBI. Agroterrorism, defined as the deliberate introduction of animal or plant diseases to cause economic losses or social instability, targets the open and dispersed nature of U.S. farms, ranches, and feedlots. Iran, with its extensive missile capabilities and network of proxy militias like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia groups in Iraq and Syria, has the potential to orchestrate or inspire such attacks. Documents recovered from al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in 2002 revealed plans to target U.S. agriculture, and Iran’s sophisticated military and intelligence apparatus could execute similar strategies with greater precision.
An agroterrorism incident, such as the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), could be catastrophic. FMD outbreaks would trigger stop-movement orders and quarantines, halting livestock trade and causing billions in losses. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that a foreign animal disease outbreak could cripple the economy, with ripple effects across global markets. Iran’s proxies, already responsible for attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria, could shift focus to softer targets like rural agricultural infrastructure, exploiting the limited resources of state and local law enforcement to respond effectively. Unlike the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, where agroterrorism was not a prominent tactic, Iran’s strategic focus on economic disruption makes this a credible threat.
Direct Attacks on U.S. Food Production
The war in Ukraine provides a stark warning of how modern conflicts can target food production. Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian grain silos, ports, and farmland have disrupted global food supplies, driving up prices and causing shortages. A U.S.-Iran war could similarly expose American agriculture to direct attacks. Iran’s ballistic missile program, the largest in the Middle East, and its network of proxies could target U.S. infrastructure, including agricultural facilities, to weaken the economy. Recent Iranian missile strikes on Israel, which penetrated sophisticated air defenses, demonstrate Tehran’s ability to inflict significant damage on urban and strategic targets. Rural areas, with minimal air defense coverage, would be particularly vulnerable.
Attacks on food processing plants, grain storage facilities, or transportation hubs could disrupt the supply chain, leading to food shortages and price spikes. Unlike the geographically distant wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran’s global reach—through proxies or cyberattacks—could bring the conflict to U.S. soil. For instance, cyberattacks on agricultural logistics, such as GPS systems used for precision farming or supply chain management, could paralyze operations. The dispersed nature of U.S. farms makes them difficult to defend, and an attack on even a few key facilities could have outsized economic and psychological impacts.
The Human Cost: Rural Americans in the Crosshairs
Rural communities, the backbone of American agriculture, would bear a disproportionate burden in a U.S.-Iran war. Young men and women from rural areas, who often make up a significant portion of military recruits, would be sent to fight and die in a conflict driven by foreign interests. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq saw over 7,000 U.S. military deaths and tens of thousands wounded, with rural communities hit hardest due to their high enlistment rates. A war with Iran, a far more formidable adversary with a population of over 80 million and a robust military, would likely result in even higher casualties.
Unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, where the U.S. faced insurgencies with limited conventional capabilities, Iran’s advanced missile arsenal, air defenses, and proxy network could prolong the conflict, requiring sustained U.S. ground and air operations. Rural families would face the loss of their youth, while farms would lose critical labor, exacerbating existing shortages in the agricultural workforce. Trump’s recent decision to halt deportation sweeps against agricultural workers, partly to avoid angering rural farmers, underscores the sector’s reliance on labor stability. A war would disrupt this delicate balance, leaving farms understaffed and economically strained.
Lessons from Afghanistan and Iraq: A Quagmire Awaits
The U.S. experience in Afghanistan and Iraq offers a cautionary tale for farmers. Both wars, initially framed as quick victories, devolved into decades-long quagmires costing over $2 trillion and achieving little lasting stability. In Iraq, the U.S. invasion toppled Saddam Hussein but unleashed chaos, civil war, and the rise of ISIS, while failing to establish a stable democracy. Afghanistan saw similar failures, with the U.S. unable to build a functional government or prevent the Taliban’s return. A war with Iran would be exponentially worse, given its larger military, strategic depth, and regional alliances with groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Israel’s ongoing conflict with Iran, marked by strikes on nuclear facilities and missile barrages, risks escalating into a regional war that could draw in the U.S. Unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, where the U.S. had broad international support initially, a war with Iran would likely see limited global backing, isolating the U.S. and straining its resources. The economic toll would hit farmers hard, as government spending on war diverts funds from agricultural subsidies and rural development programs. The Iraq and Afghanistan wars already strained rural communities; a new conflict would compound these challenges, leaving farmers to shoulder the economic and social costs.
Additional Risks: Environmental and Social Impacts
Beyond economics and security, a U.S.-Iran war could have environmental and social consequences for agriculture. Military mobilization would increase demand for resources like water and land, potentially diverting them from farming. Environmental degradation from conflict-related activities, such as chemical spills or cyberattacks on water infrastructure, could contaminate farmland. Socially, rural communities would face heightened anxiety and division, as seen during the Iraq War when public support waned. Farmers, already grappling with mental health challenges and economic uncertainty, would face further strain, potentially leading to increased farm closures.
Why Farmers Must Oppose U.S. Involvement
American farmers have a vested interest in preventing U.S. involvement in an Israel-Iran war. The economic fallout—higher costs, disrupted markets, and reduced exports—would squeeze already tight margins. The threat of agroterrorism and direct attacks on food production, inspired by Iran’s capabilities and proxies, could destabilize the sector and undermine food security. The loss of young rural Americans to a foreign war, combined with labor shortages, would cripple farms and communities. Lessons from Afghanistan and Iraq show that such conflicts yield little benefit for the U.S. while exacting a heavy toll.
Farmers must vociferously oppose this war, leveraging their political influence in rural heartlands—a key part of Trump’s base—to demand restraint. They should rally through agricultural organizations, contact elected officials, and amplify their voices in public forums, emphasizing that another Middle East quagmire serves neither their interests nor the nation’s. The U.S. must prioritize diplomacy, as Trump has suggested, to de-escalate tensions and avoid a catastrophic war. For American farmers, the stakes could not be higher—staying out of this conflict is essential to protect their livelihoods and the nation’s food supply.