In early August 2025, commodity brokerage StoneX dropped a bombshell on the agricultural markets, projecting a U.S. corn yield of 188.1 bushels per acre for the 2025 season, translating to a staggering 16.323 billion bushel harvest. This figure, significantly higher than the USDA’s estimate of 181 bushels per acre, has sparked outrage among farmers and analysts who see it as a deliberate attempt to suppress corn futures prices and squeeze American farmers out of profitability. The estimate, championed by StoneX’s Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman, raises serious questions about market manipulation, corporate agendas, and the role of influential players like BlackRock, which is the largest shareholder of StoneX. With corn futures already languishing at historically low levels (around $4.10 to $4.30 per bushel), farmers are left wondering if this is a calculated move to drive them into financial ruin.
Commodity brokerage StoneX on Monday projected U.S. 2025 #corn production at 16.323 billion bushels, with an average #yield of 188.1 bushels per acre (bpa). StoneX forecast the #soybean harvest at 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bpa.https://t.co/1Ahf3wgyF5
— FarmPolicy (@FarmPolicy) August 5, 2025
Why the 188 Bushel Estimate Doesn’t Add Up
StoneX’s projection of 188.1 bushels per acre is not just optimistic, it’s borderline fantastical. The estimate far exceeds the USDA’s trendline yield of 181 bushels per acre, which itself is considered ambitious given the challenges faced during the 2025 growing season. Reports from the field indicate significant issues that would likely cap yields well below record levels. Farmers across the Corn Belt have reported tassel wrap, where corn plants’ tassels remain trapped in whorl leaves, potentially disrupting pollination. Additionally, excessive rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt delayed planting, with USDA noting that 3.63 million acres of corn remained unplanted as of mid-June. Wet conditions and late planting are known to reduce yields, as seen in years with similar weather patterns.
Despite these challenges, StoneX’s Arlan Suderman has doubled down on the 188.1 bushel estimate, citing a proprietary customer survey. Yet, Suderman has been conspicuously silent about the survey’s methodology, refusing to disclose the number of participants or the specific data behind the projection. This lack of transparency fuels speculation that the estimate is less about agronomic reality and more about market manipulation. Posts on X have echoed this sentiment, with one user sarcastically noting, “WOW I can’t believe StoneX came out with a 188 #Corn yield to manipulate the market that is comprised from farmer surveys.” The absence of verifiable data only deepens suspicions that StoneX is pushing a narrative to serve corporate interests rather than reflecting on-the-ground conditions.
Agronomically, StoneX’s estimate is difficult to defend. While Iowa, a key corn-producing state, has reported exceptional crop conditions (86% good-to-excellent), other states like Ohio, North Dakota, and Michigan are lagging with below-average ratings. Even in a best-case scenario, averaging the top yields from recent years would yield a national average of 183.5 bushels per acre, still well below StoneX’s projection. Moreover, historical data shows that USDA’s August yield estimates often overshoot actual results, with seven of the last ten years seeing downward revisions.
The USDA’s Complicity in the Game
The USDA’s role in this saga is equally troubling. In recent years, the agency’s in-season reports have consistently overestimated yields and carryover stocks, only to revise them significantly after the fact. For example, in 2023, the USDA set the corn trend yield at 181.5 bushels per acre, only to slash it to 173 bushels after dry weather impacted crops. These revisions often come too late to benefit farmers, who are forced to sell their harvests at depressed prices based on overly optimistic early estimates. By the time the USDA corrects its figures, the market has already locked in low prices, leaving farmers shortchanged.
Never forget what they took from you, since 2019
USDA NASS forecasts a huge crop.
Price is understated for the whole marketing year.
Come clean about the real production after the cash grain is all bought up.
Every. Single. Year.
It’s Deja Vu all over again in 2024-2025 https://t.co/MoQMdRCbLl pic.twitter.com/qIK8IYoNdg
— Benjamin Riensche (@BenRiensche) July 13, 2025
The USDA’s August 12, 2025, Crop Production report is expected to update its yield estimate, but analysts predict it will fall short of StoneX’s lofty 188.1 bushels, likely landing in the 184-185 bushel range. Even this adjustment would keep prices low, as markets have already priced in expectations of a bumper crop. The USDA’s pattern of delayed corrections mirrors StoneX’s tactics, suggesting a coordinated effort to keep futures prices suppressed. This dynamic has led to accusations that the USDA is complicit in a broader scheme to prioritize corporate profits over farmers’ livelihoods.
BlackRock’s Shadow and Market Suppression
BlackRock is the largest shareholder of StoneX Group Inc., owning 13.9% of the company. BlackRock’s extensive investments in agribusiness and commodity markets raise red flags about potential conflicts of interest. Considering StoneX’s ties to BlackRock, the 188.1 bushel yield estimate could be a strategic move to depress corn futures prices, benefiting food companies and processors that thrive on cheap grain. Lower prices mean higher margins for companies producing ethanol, livestock feed, and processed foods – sectors where BlackRock has significant stakes.
Alternatively, the suppressed prices could be designed to force farmers into financial distress, compelling them to sell their land at bargain prices. With corn prices stuck at levels that barely cover production costs (farmers are reportedly making slim profits, if any), the pressure to liquidate assets is mounting. Large institutional investors, including those like BlackRock, stand to gain by scooping up farmland from farmers forced to sell, consolidating control over America’s agricultural heartland.
A Call for Transparency and Accountability
StoneX’s 188.1 bushel corn yield estimate appears less like an honest forecast and more like a calculated move to suppress markets. Whether driven by BlackRock’s influence or a desire to favor corporate interests, the estimate undermines farmers already grappling with low prices and challenging growing conditions. The USDA’s history of late revisions only compounds the issue, leaving farmers to sell at a loss while markets adjust too late.
Farmers deserve transparency from StoneX and the USDA. Suderman must disclose the details of his survey, and the USDA must prioritize timely, accurate reporting to prevent market distortions. Until then, the 188 bushel estimate will remain a flashpoint in a broader battle over the future of American agriculture, one where farmers are increasingly caught in the crosshairs of corporate greed.
Bold of you to call out Arlan for not being ‘transparent’ (even though he in fact does not head the crop survey), but you do not cite the author(s) of this article. Sounds to me like a bunch of keyboard warriors who have nothing better to do than to write a very opinionated article bashing the wrong person. Tells me you didn’t do enough research regarding the crop survey StoneX puts out, leading me to not believe one word in this article.
Did we say Arlan headed the crop survey? Or did we clearly state his position? Go re-read and you will find it’s the latter.
Why don’t you inform us of the true nature of StoneX’s crop survey so we can review the data upon which they are basing their absurd estimates? Oh, that’s right – because it’s all smoke and mirrors.
EXACTLY! MOST FARMERS ON X ARE ASKING THE SAME THING. SAMPLE SIZE. PARTICIPANTS FROM WHAT STATES. METHODOLOGY. F*** STONEX
No, you in fact did say he was heading the survey, or did you not proof read your own article? Anyways, at least Arlan has the balls to not hide behind an authorless article and take the heat from those who think he’s the bad guy. Be a man (or woman, who knows) and let us know who had a strong rush of feelings to write a strongly worded article with incorrect details.
Haha! Arlan the propagandist. No clarity on survey sample size, regions, etc., AI models are saying 174-178 bu/acre range. I’m always at a loss when alleged satellites can tell “us” subsoil moisture across the country, but we need manual surveys to explain yield. The same satellites should be able to confirm plant dates, weather events and NDVI imagining of crop health to give us highly accurate estimates. Whose more fraudulent? The USDA or StoneX?
Hello! Tassel wrap and late planting dates in eastern corn belt. There’s no way in hell we have a record yield.
I’m in Nebraska and it is true a lot of the state has had a ton of rain, but there a lot of areas that are burned up as well. To say the state will have a 200+ bushel yield is delusional. I didn’t apply fungicide and now regret it. Disease is coming in fast. I’m burnt out and tired of the government and their cronies telling us about our crops from a highrise
Too many surveys that cause nothing but incorrect data. We are the only business in the world that allows people in our fields to telegraph our passes. It’s amazing USDA won’t realize accurate yields until January, at the earliest.
With this being a Stone X Customer Survey it tells me that the info comes from buyers. The majority of Stone X business comes from elevators and end users, not farmer accounts. It is simply another way of Big Ag taking advantage of farmers.
New to agro wars but cool site. It’s like real news and a refreshing perspective!