In a recent column published in Time magazine, Beth Ford, the president and CEO of Land O’Lakes, painted a stark picture of the challenges gripping America’s farm economy. Describing a “storm brewing” in agriculture and rural communities, Ford highlighted a confluence of factors that are pushing many farmers to the brink. Her words serve as a wake-up call, underscoring the fragility of the nation’s food system amid declining incomes, shifting global dynamics, and policy uncertainties. Yet, even as the outlook appears grim, there are emerging reasons for cautious optimism that could help farmers weather the turbulence ahead.
Ford’s assessment is rooted in the harsh realities facing grain farmers in particular, who she says are enduring “the most challenging economics since 2009.” She elaborated on a perfect storm of pressures: “Trade lanes are shifting. Interest rates are high. Commodity prices are eroding. Labor is insufficient and inaccessible, and there is no certainty of a new Farm Bill, or the safety net it traditionally provides. Some of these factors are not new, but the complexity of the combination of issues, and the speed with which they are accelerating, is. It’s not just one thing. It’s all the things.” This multifaceted crisis has led to farm bankruptcies roughly doubling compared to last year, signaling widespread distress across the sector.
At the heart of Ford’s concerns is the precipitous drop in farm profitability. Net farm income, a key indicator of the sector’s health, declined by 25% from 2022 to 2024, with further declines projected for 2025. But the figure that truly illustrates the human toll is the estimated median farm income for 2025: a staggering -$328. As Ford poignantly put it, “Think of that—a year of sweat and effort to lose $328. Most estimates indicate that less than 5% of farms will be profitable this year, for the third year in a row. In fact, nearly 90% of farm families need to rely on off-farm income to keep their operations viable and to feed their own families.” This negative median reflects the reality for the majority of U.S. farms, many of which are small or mid-sized operations struggling to break even. Larger farms may skew aggregate figures positively, but for the typical farmer, the math simply doesn’t add up, exacerbated by exhausted savings from better years, when commodity booms and disaster relief provided temporary buffers.
These economic woes are compounded by broader structural issues. Commodity prices for staples like corn, soybeans, and wheat have plummeted due to global oversupply and competition from countries like Brazil, which has strengthened its trade position, and China, which has ramped up self-sufficiency. Ford noted, “Evolving trade policy has taken away markets as Brazil trade has gotten stronger and China has become more self-sufficient.” High input costs—for seeds, fertilizers, fuel, and equipment—continue to squeeze margins, making the next planting season even costlier. Labor shortages persist, with policies failing to address the need for reliable workers in fields and processing plants. Moreover, the aging farmer demographic adds another layer of vulnerability: farmers are getting older, and vast swaths of farmland, such as 20 million of Iowa’s 30 million acres, are poised for transition. Ford warned of the risks from consolidation, stating, “As private equity firms have become financial buyers of farmland, consolidation trends are changing… When farms are owned by firms, not families, communities wither. Contract farming does not plant community roots.” This shift threatens not just individual livelihoods but the fabric of rural America, where farms anchor local economies, schools, and social networks.
The ripple effects extend beyond the farm gate. Rural communities are seeing increased strain, with declining populations, shuttered businesses, and reduced tax bases. Without intervention, Ford argues, the U.S. risks undermining its food security—after all, as she emphasized, “Food security is national security.” She called for urgent policy action, including “a robust trade agenda that opens market access for U.S. products,” immigration reform to secure borders while solving labor shortages, and a new Farm Bill to provide stability. Recent legislative moves, like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, offer some relief through enhanced Agricultural Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payments for the 2025-26 crop year, though these won’t arrive until fall 2026, and increased crop insurance subsidies. Still, Ford’s message is clear: “We must pay attention to the gathering storm before it’s too late.”
Despite this sobering diagnosis, there are glimmers of hope that could brighten the horizon for farmers in 2025 and beyond. For one, aggregate net farm income is forecasted to rebound significantly, reaching $180.1 billion, which is a 29.5% increase from 2024, largely driven by substantial government payments, including supplemental disaster assistance from measures like the American Relief Act. This influx, projected at $42.4 billion, represents a lifeline for operations hit by weather events or market volatility, helping to offset declines in crop receipts for commodities like corn and soybeans. Farmer sentiment surveys reflect this cautious optimism, with many expressing improved outlooks for financial performance following the recent election, anticipating a more favorable regulatory and tax environment under new leadership. Higher prices for key crops like corn and soybeans in early 2025 have also boosted confidence, potentially easing some of the price erosion Ford described.
Technological innovations offer another avenue for resilience. Precision agriculture tools, powered by AI and data analytics, are enabling farmers to optimize inputs, reduce waste, and boost yields, potentially cutting costs by 15-20% on average. Advances in biotechnology, such as drought-resistant seeds and sustainable pest management, could help mitigate weather risks, while emerging markets for biofuels derived from agricultural waste (rather than traditional corn) promise new revenue streams. Sustainability practices are gaining traction too, with consumers and corporations willing to pay premiums for eco-friendly products, opening doors for regenerative farming that improves soil health and sequesters carbon. If trade policies evolve to reclaim lost markets, U.S. exports could surge, capitalizing on America’s efficiency edge.
Diversification is key to this optimism. Many farmers are exploring agritourism, value-added products like artisanal cheeses or direct-to-consumer sales. With normal weather patterns assumed for the year, average or better harvests could further stabilize incomes. While challenges remain formidable, these developments suggest that adaptive strategies and supportive policies could turn the tide.
In the end, Ford’s warning reminds us that agriculture isn’t just an industry; it’s the backbone of our nation. By heeding the call for action and embracing innovation, farmers may not only survive the storm but emerge stronger, ensuring a secure food future for all.